Recently, China decided to give Pakistan its SLC-18 space surveillance radar, which can find Low Earth Orbit satellites under nearly any set of circumstances. China’s state-owned, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, is said to be the one producing the 10-metre SLC-18 radar.

India is widely deemed as the driving factor behind Pakistan’s interest in such technology and their purchase of this radar. Of India’s 53 active satellites in orbit, 21 are essentially Earth observation satellites, while the remaining 8 satellites are navigation satellites. In the scenario of a full-scale war, India would be able to map Pakistan down to the smallest of details and acquire real-time information on troop movements within the country.

The sale makes one wonder if China’s move is purely a business one or a ploy to strengthen Pakistan’s capability in space so as to weaken India’s defences. Could it be China’s race against India in space tech that ultimately led to this exchange?

But is there an ongoing space race?

India has 53 satellites to claim in space while China boasts 499 satellites in orbit. The latter launched more satellites in 2021 alone than the US and all other Asian nations combined. According to Retd Air Marshal Anil Chopra, “China has more orbital launches than [the] USA and all Asian countries put together. . . In 2021, China had 55 launches and we [India] had only two launches. Via 55 launches, China placed 115 spacecraft, a total payload mass of more than 191 metric tonnes in orbit in 2021.”  

(Source: Statista, Total satellites in space by countries)

Prima facie, it doesn’t seem like there is a space race going on between India and China, and further emphasised when we consider that China accounts for more than 10% of all satellites launched till now while India only accounts for a mere 1.09%.  While India’s heaviest rocket, the ‘GSLV Mark 3’, can only launch 4 tonnes, China’s ‘Long March 5’, which was approved in 2000, has the capacity to launch payloads up to 14 tonnes. So, one must rightly wonder whether there is even a race going on when India is so far behind China in terms of space tech capabilities. 

ISRO, the giant who once walked alone

The Indian Space and Research Organization (ISRO) has never claimed to be a participant in any well-known space race; instead, it has always focused on developing and researching space initiatives that advance the economy of the country. Owing to this goal alone, ISRO was able to launch 104 micro satellites using only one rocket. 

The launch of ‘Chandrayaan’, an accomplishment by ISRO, revealed water on the moon—something no other organisation had been able to achieve. A recent addition to this list of achievements is the ‘Gaganyaan Mission’, a part of the Indian Human Spaceflight Programme, that aims to launch astronauts into space by 2024. If India succeeds, it will establish ISRO as a key player in the space race against nations like the US and China. Anil Prakash, director general at Satcom Industry Association (SIA) India, recently spoke to AIM and shared that the Gaganyaan programme would, in the long run, lay the groundwork for an affordable and sustained human and robotic programme for India. He believes that this will foster greater collaboration and cooperation between academics and industry in the context of future R&D initiatives.

Satellite Wars: India versus China

So, the question remains whether China and India are indeed fighting a space war when there is no significant development from either party? The answer is, they are not. China is seemingly winning what we define as ‘war’ in the context of space tech. India’s manned mission is indubitably an ambitious one but China’s crewed mission was successfully completed back in 2003, when astronaut Yang Liwei was shuttled to space aboard Shenzhou 5 spacecraft by a Long March 2F rocket for more than 21 hours. 

China currently has the ability to operate legitimate civilian missions with laser satellite trackers, commercial space surveillance systems, satellites that clear space debris, and refuelling spacecraft. Other countries are now concerned that China may be able to move their satellites as well, after it reportedly moved an old satellite 300 kilometres from its orbit in an effort to clear space debris.

To further add to these concerns, China has also doubled its space assets for intelligence gathering and surveillance over the past four years—enabling it to track, monitor, and target the forces of other nations around the world. The world space community was unprepared for China’s testing of an advanced hypersonic fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) in August 2021. A nuclear weapon was launched into a low-Earth orbit, or about 150 km, where it stayed as it floated above the planet before returning into the atmosphere to strike the intended target.

Conversely, India has so far invested into communications and mapping largely, although the Gaganyaan programme is expected to provide a little hope. The manned space programme, followed by the construction of a space centre, will provide India with a base to start increasing its presence as a space-superpower. 

India has utilised space in its own unique way thus far; for instance, ISRO’s GSAT-7A satellite is fitted with Ku-band transponders—allowing it to connect IAF fighter aircraft, airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms, unmanned aerial vehicles, ground radar stations, and significant air bases—which provided a level of connectivity that reflected in real-time inputs during the Balakot airstrikes in February 2019.

A satellite was put into orbit with the sole purpose of monitoring ships in the Indian Ocean last year. With the help of this satellite, direct feed is provided to a multi-agency centre run by the Indian Navy. The disparity between both nations continues to persist but India is surely making its own steadfast strides in this war.