Sam Altman Admits He Was Wrong on AI Adoption Timelines

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman accepted that he was wrong about how quickly AI would disrupt software businesses, acknowledging that he and other industry leaders had been “too ambitious on timelines.”

Altman made the comments in a recent podcast with entrepreneur and investor David Senra. 

He had expected the release of GPT-4 in 2023 to trigger much faster disruption across the software industry, with established businesses becoming vulnerable to AI-powered alternatives almost immediately.

“I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia,” Altman said.

Altman observed that people and companies tend to continue using the products and workflows they already know even as new technology becomes available. That lag, he argued, means the economic effects of increasingly capable AI will unfold more gradually than he previously expected.

“People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company….wanting to use their tools the same way,” he said.

Altman also pointed to his own habits as an example of how difficult it can be to change the way people work with technology. He said he still uses computers in many of the same ways he has for years, arguing that “changing behaviour is just much harder than the tech nerds realise.”

He said the slower pace of adoption could ultimately be beneficial, describing it as “a positive in many ways” that would make the transition “go smoother and slower.”

“But I think it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines,” Altman said. “Society and the economy will adapt more slowly.”

OpenAI has already confidentially filed for a US IPO, although the company has not set a listing date or disclosed the size of the offering. Reports suggest that OpenAI is targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion, while CFO Sarah Friar has indicated internally that 2027 is the likely timeframe. 

The company has also said the listing may be a while away because some initiatives are easier to pursue while OpenAI remains private.

Friar said in April that OpenAI plans to reserve a portion of its IPO shares for retail investors, potentially giving individual investors direct access to the listing rather than allocating the offering primarily to institutions.