Meta is projected to overtake Google in global and US digital advertising revenue by the end of 2026, according to a forecast by eMarketer.
Meta is expected to generate $243.46 billion in worldwide ad revenue in 2026, compared with Google’s $239.54 billion. In 2025, Google led with $214.06 billion, while Meta reported $196.17 billion.
Meta’s share of global digital ad spending is forecast to reach 26.8% in 2026, surpassing Google’s 26.4%, whose share has been declining since 2021.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, Principal Analyst at Emarketer. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media.”
The shift is driven by faster growth at Meta. The forecast estimated that the company’s global ad revenue will rise from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% in 2026, while Google’s growth is expected to remain at 11.9%.
“Meta’s growth is not coming from just one source,” said Zach Goldner, Senior Forecasting Analyst at eMarketer. “It’s unlocking more value across its entire ecosystem at the same time.”
Goldner said tools such as Advantage+ and AI-generated ad creatives are improving performance across Facebook and Instagram, with Reels contributing to increased advertiser spending.
“For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps—the question is how much they should spend,” Willens said.
Google, which also earns revenue from services such as YouTube Premium, may face constraints in accelerating ad growth due to the diversity of its business, according to Willens.
The forecast does not factor in potential near-term impacts from recent court rulings involving Meta and YouTube. “These cases will take years to fully play out,” Goldner said, adding that advertisers prioritise performance over legal risk.
Amazon remains the third-largest digital advertising company. It is projected to grow from $68.64 billion in ad revenue in 2025 to $82.07 billion in 2026 and $97.07 billion in 2027, reaching a 9.0% share of global digital ad spending in 2026.
Together, Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to account for 62.3% of global digital ad spending in 2026.
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