Why India’s Newfound Indifference to H-1B Visas Signals a Strategic Retreat

For decades, the H-1B visa has served as a talent bridge between India and the US, with Indians accounting for over 70% of all approved petitions since 2015. The visa has been instrumental in building the careers of many Indian tech leaders, including Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Aravind Srinivas, who all started working in the US on an H-1B visa.

However, a bigger shift is now underway.

As India and US signal a trade deal, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, in a recent interview with CNBC-TV18, downplayed the role of H-1B. “Personally, I believe the H-1B visa has lost significance post-COVID-19, with people working from home.” He added that India and the US did not discuss H-1B visas during the trade talks.

The remark marked a striking change in tone. Last year, when the US imposed a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers, India had pushed back strongly. Goyal himself had remarked at the time: “They are also a little afraid of our talent. We have no objection to that.”

His latest comment, by contrast, sounded almost indifferent, signalling a strategic decoupling from an issue that once dominated Indo-US economic diplomacy. In the middle of an ongoing H-1B crisis, the statement sends a loaded signal: If remote work can replace physical presence, why expand—or even preserve—the programme at all? 

Shift in Strategy

The shift also reflects structural changes within India’s IT sector. Indian IT majors, including Wipro and Infosys, now employ more than 50% local staff in their US operations, sharply reducing visa dependence. Increased spending on AI, aggressive upskilling, and regulatory risk management have reshaped delivery models.

Data shows a sustained decline in reliance on H-1B visas. According to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, Tata Consultancy Services is the only Indian IT company among the top 10 H-1B applicants today. The rest are dominated by Big Tech and global consultancies, with Amazon alone receiving more than 13,000 approvals.

Figures from the National Foundation for American Policy show that approved H-1B petitions for initial employment from the top seven Indian IT firms fell 56% to about 6,700 in FY23 from roughly 15,100 in FY15. The pandemic accelerated this offshore shift, insulating large Indian firms from policy shocks.

In October last year, Infosys CEO and MD Salil Parekh said the company’s talent approach remained unchanged. “The majority of our employees in the US do not require a visa. We continue to operate using a mix of our US and India workforce,” he said, adding that the firm would review its strategy as policies evolve.

The introduction of a $100,000 one-time fee for new H-1B petitions filed from outside the US has further forced a rethink. For entry- and mid-level roles, the economics no longer work. As a result, companies are retaining employees in India and serving US clients through global capability centres (GCCs) and remote delivery models—quietly diminishing the relevance of the visa.

Mohandas Pai, former CFO and board member of Infosys, tells AIM that firms are silent because dependence on H-1B visas has already fallen sharply. “With the rise of GCCs over the past five years, 50–60% of work is managed offshore. Today, it is leading American tech companies that dominate H-1B applications,” he says. While the visa will not be scrapped, he adds, its absence “no longer impacts the IT sector materially.”

Failure to Solve Crisis

That does not mean the crisis has been resolved. The sharp fee hike sent ripples through the market, with shares of major IT firms, such as Infosys and TCS, plunging after the announcement. In December, the Trump administration also mandated public disclosure of applicants’ social media profiles, leaving thousands of Indians stranded or forced to delay travel.

State leaders, including Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, warned of severe hardship for Indian workers and families in the US. Yet, as Pai notes, “No government can negotiate with the US” under the current political climate.

India appears instead to have prioritised trade-offs elsewhere. Analysts believe New Delhi tacitly accepted tighter visa regimes in exchange for tariff concessions under the Interim Trade Framework, which reduced US tariffs on certain Indian goods to 18%.

Ellen Freeman, Managing Partner at Ellen Freeman Immigration Law Group, PLLC, argues that the visa turmoil has been deeply political, with enforcement pressure disproportionately affecting Indian applicants. “Trump has used H-1B to arm-twist the Indian government for saying no to Russian oil. Otherwise, why are only Indian nationals facing delays in getting visa approvals?” she wonders.

India’s changing position reflects adjustment rather than closure. Remote work, GCCs, and focus on local hiring have reduced companies’ reliance on H-1B visas. However, Indian workers and their families are still reeling in the aftermath of tighter—and costlier—visa rules. While policymakers may be recognising new economic realities, they risk overlooking a problem that is still reshaping the Indian-American dream—slowly, but perhaps permanently.